A new report combining forecasting and expert prediction data, predicts that 125,000 lives could be saved by the end of 2021 if 50% or more of the U.S. population initiated COVID vaccination by March 1, 2021.
“Meta and consensus forecast of COVID-19 targets,” developed by Thomas McAndrew, a computational scientist and faculty member at Lehigh University’s College of Health, and colleagues, incorporates data from experts and trained forecasters, combining their predictions into a single consensus forecast. In addition McAndrew and his team produce a metaforecast, which is a combination of an ensemble of computational models and their consensus forecast.
In addition to predictions related to the impact of vaccinations, the report includes forecasting analyses on a variety of U.S. COVID-related issues, including number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant, which first emerged in the United Kingdom but is believed to be spreading rapidly in the U.S.
From the report:
McAndrew’s approach to forecasting is different from the traditional approach, he says. Rather than build a computational model to predict cases, deaths, and hospitalizations due to COVID, he asks experts and trained forecasters to predict these targets and combines their predictions into a single consensus forecast.
In addition he produces a metaforecast: a combination of an ensemble of computational models and the consensus forecast.
“The idea is to combine computational models with human judgment to make more accurate predictions of the US outbreak,” says McAndrew.
Forecast: 125,000 fewer US COVID deaths if 50% initiate vaccination by March 1 (2021, January 29)
retrieved 29 January 2021
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